Hi there, I’m TheFoxTees , Bloomberg UK Associate Editor and Readout author. Hope you enjoy today’s newsletter.
The Battle for Leadership: Humza Yousaf’s Tenure at Risk
Humza Yousaf is battling to keep his job as first minister of Scotland, insisting this afternoon that he won’t resign, while facing a no-confidence vote in the Scottish parliament as soon as next week.
The Kingmaker: Ash Regan’s Pivotal Role
His survival looks likely to depend on one woman: Ash Regan, his former rival for the SNP leadership, who now sits for the breakaway Alba party after losing to Yousaf last year. With her support, Yousaf could cling on, but even that looks unsustainable.
Inside Analysis: Liz Lloyd’s Perspective
On today’s Bloomberg UK Politics podcast, Nicola Sturgeon’s former chief of staff, Liz Lloyd, shares her candid analysis of the outlook. “For Yousaf, if he survives, the government is fundamentally unstable and he cannot govern essentially in hock to Alex Salmond’s Alba party,” she says. “There will be people on his own benches who will not be happy with that. So he’s kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place.”
The Future of SNP Leadership
That chimes with what I’m hearing — that even if Yousaf survives this immediate challenge, he won’t be SNP leader for much longer after that.
Rishi Sunak’s Moment of Jeopardy
Another leader facing a moment of jeopardy next week is, of course, Rishi Sunak, whose party is heading into Thursday’s local elections trailing by more than 20 points in the polls. They are predicted to lose hundreds of council seats, but Conservative morale is resting on the reelection of two Tory mayors: Andy Street in the West Midlands, and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley. If one or both lose, there is a risk Yousaf won’t be the only leader facing a confidence vote.
A Glimmer of Hope Amidst the Turmoil
But there’s a glimmer of hope for Sunak. I interviewed Andy Street earlier this week, and he told me that while the Conservative Party’s national poll position is “of course” weighing on his campaign, he won’t blame Sunak if he loses. That will come as something of a relief to the prime minister, amid Westminster chatter that Street or Houchen could call for his resignation if they lost.
The Struggle of ‘Brand Andy’
But it’s not that much of a relief. Even if Street holds on, it will be despite, and not because, of the Conservative brand nationally. The West Midlands mayor told me that the poor Tory standing is “not a challenge”, because he is fighting his campaign on “Brand Andy.”
The Conservative Brand: A National Dilemma
And let me tell you: after talking to voters in Birmingham and West Bromwich this week, the Conservative brand nationally is not looking good. Look out for our report on that next week, and for Alex Wickham’s Saturday read on all the disputes inside the Conservative party ahead of that vote.
Elections and Voternomics: A New Podcast
And while we’re on the subject of elections, do check out Voternomics, a new podcast out today, hosted by Stephanie Flanders, Adrian Wooldridge and my fellow Readout author Allegra Stratton.
